KGI Securities

KGI: 2017 iPhones to ship with 5W power adapter, wireless charger sold separately

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo clarified in a note to clients, a copy of which was obtained by MacRumors, that Apple's OLED-based iPhone 8 and LCD-based iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus smartphones would ship with the same old 5-Watt power adapter, like prior iPhones.

A USB-A to Lightning cable should be included in the box as a standard accessory.

He reiterated his previous stance that iPhone 8 would include a USB-C Power Delivery chip for fast-charge capability. Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis predicted that iPhone 8 would come bundled with a 10-Watt power adapter featuring USB-C connectivity and fast-charge support.

All new iPhones coming down the pike in 2017 should adopt all-glass bodies with metal frames to support wireless charging functionality said to be compatible with the standard put forth by the Wireless Power Consortium, of which Apple is a member.

The analyst claims wireless charging will require an inductive charger, sold separately.

All new iPhones would use ten to fifteen percent faster RAM than iPhone 7 for better augmented reality performance in apps that use the new ARKit framework.

iPhone 8 and iPhone 7s Plus may use 3GB of RAM for better dual-camera performance, while the 4.7-inch iPhone 7s should have 2GB of RAM as it lacks a dual-lens camera.

Kuo said yesterday iPhone 8 would come in limited color options and feature 3D sensing for facial recognition and no Touch ID fingerprint scanning, adding that all 2017 iPhone models would have an improved stereo speaker system and come in 64 and 256GB storage options.

iPhone 8 mockup via iDropNews.

KGI: iPhone 8 won’t support fingerprint recognition

Revered Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities is back with the latest round of predictions conquering Apple's upcoming iPhones, obtained by StreetInsider.

The biggest takeaway from his latest note to clients: iPhone 8 will adopt a full-screen design with a 5.8-inch OLED screen covering nearly the entire front face of the phone. It should have “the highest screen-to-body ratio of any smartphone currently available worldwide”.

The device will feature a virtual Home button. Kuo doesn't think the virtual button will support Touch ID fingerprint recognition although he didn't unequivocally state that the OLED-based handset won't have an integrated in-screen fingerprint sensor.

An excerpt from his note:

We predict the OLED model won’t support fingerprint recognition, reasons being:

(1) the full-screen design doesn’t work with existing capacitive fingerprint recognition

(2) the scan-through ability of the under-display fingerprint solution still has technical challenges, including: (i) requirement for a more complex panel pixel design; (ii) disappointing scan-through of OLED panel despite it being thinner than LCD panel; and (iii) weakened scan-through performance due to overlayered panel module.

As the new OLED iPhone won’t support under-display fingerprint recognition, we now do not expect production ramp-up will be delayed again (we previously projected the ramp-up would be postponed to late October or later).

The analyst reiterated that the OLED-based device will use 3D sensors for advanced facial recognition, improved selfie quality, 3D mapping and other features.

“To maintain its boutique image, we think the OLED version will offer fewer options for casing colors than LCD iPhone models,” reads Kuo's note.

As for the 4.7-inch iPhone 7s and the 5.5-inch iPhone 7s Plus updates, Kuo maintains that these models will continue to use LCD display technology and retain the front form factor design similar to the current iPhone 7 series.

The OLED-based iPhone 8 and the 5.5-inch iPhone 7s Plus will have 3GB of RAM due to dual-camera requirements, while the 4.7-inch iPhone 7s is expected to only use 2GB RAM because it's expected to have a single camera.

All three new models should come with 64GB and 256GB storage options and have a Lightning port with a built-in USB-C Power Delivery chip for fast charging. The output power of the devices' receiver and speaker will be more consistent than before in order to “create better stereo effects,” the analyst predicted.

“For optimized promotional effect, we think Apple may unveil the three models simultaneously in September, though the launch date of the OLED version may trail that of LCD models, and supply tightness may not improve before the first quarter of 2018,” reads the note.

KGI forecast shipments of the three new iPhone models of 80-85 million units during Apple's fiscal year 2017, with an equal split between OLED-based iPhone and the LCD-based iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus models.

iPhone 8 Full Vision Display concept courtesy of iFanr.

KGI: Siri home speaker to sport physical controls via dedicated touch panel

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted that Apple's rumored Siri home speaker will support physical control via a dedicated touch panel. He expects the device to debut at WWDC next month alongside the “announcement of software development details for home AI”.

In his report to clients Saturday, seen by MacRumors, Kuo did not specify if the AI-driven speaker might feature a built-in touchscreen display or use a set of capacitive physical buttons for things like volume and playback control.

Here's an excerpt from Kuo's note:

In our April 28 Insight report (“Apple’s first home AI product to see cyclical shipments of over ten million units; main competitor is Amazon Echo”), we offered estimates for the new home AI/Siri speaker line. We also believe this new product will come with a touch panel.

For what it's worth, Australian leakster Sonny Dickson claimed in April to have learned from insiders that the smart home accessory will be fat, featuring a Mac Pro-like concave top with built-in controls and a speaker mesh portion covering it all.

Phil Schiller, Apple's Senior Vice President of Worldwide Marketing, recently speculated that voice-activated home accessories could benefit from the inclusion of a screen.

“There are many moments where a voice assistant is really beneficial, but that doesn't mean you'd never want a screen,” Schiller said.

“So the idea of not having a screen, I don't think it suits many situations.”

Last year, Bloomberg listed some of the device's potential features:

Control home appliances, locks, lights, curtains and other HomeKit devices More advanced always-on mic and speaker than Amazon Echo or Google Home Facial recognition to see folks in the room and determine their emotional state Built-in speaker for wireless music playback Built-in Siri would process many of the commands available on iPhone

If you ask CNET, it may include built-in cameras as well:

For example, users may be able to ask the device to read e-mails, send text messages and tweets, and stream content from Apple Music. Apple has also considered integrating mapping information into the speaker, potentially allowing the device to notify a user when it’s time to leave the house for an appointment.

Apple reportedly started work on the project in 2014, right after debuting HomeKit.

Previously, Kuo predicted that the accessory would provide “excellent acoustics performance” with a subwoofer, seven tweeters, always-on microphone and computing power similar to the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6s application processors. Australian leakster Sonny Dickson claimed the Siri speaker should use Beats audio technology and run a variant of iOS.

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The rumored device should be built by AirPods manufacturer Inventec.

Given his prediction that the market for smart home devices might outsell the iPad market next year, Kuo forecast Siri device shipments of around twelve million units in its first year of availability. Apple’s W1 chip, which debuted in AirPods, could play a key role in the product.

Apple is likely to launch additional models of the Siri speaker in the future, he added.

Kuo has given Apple's rumored Amazon Echo competitor 50-50 odds and the rumored 10.5-inch iPad Pro model more than 70-30 odds of being announced at the Cupertino company's annual Worldwide Developers Conference next month.

WWDC 2017 kicks off with a keynote address at 10:00am Pacific Time on Monday, June 5.

Mockup via iFunnyVlogger on Twitter

KGI: 70% likelihood that Apple will unveil 10.5″ iPad Pro at WWDC next month

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says there's over 70 percent likelihood that Apple's rumored 10.5-inch iPad Pro with a redesigned chassis is formally announced at the June 5 WWDC keynote as suppliers are gearing up for volume production in early June.

In his Saturday research note to clients, titled “2017 WWDC highlights” and seen by MacRumors, the analyst wrote that Apple's engineers were able to squeeze a 10.5-inch display into a similar form factor to the existing 9.7-inch iPads due to the narrower side bezels on the upcoming 10.5-inch iPad Pro model.

Here's an excerpt from the note:

The newly designed 10.5-inch iPad Pro will have a similar form factor to the 9.7-inch model, but will feature a larger display thanks to narrow bezels. The new design should improve the user experience and help gain traction in the corporate and commercial sectors.

He added that Foxconn will be assemble the new device, while GIS will be the sole supplier of touch panel modules. KGI forecast 10.5-inch iPad Pro shipments of five to six million units in fiscal 2017, accounting for fifteen percent of total fiscal 2017 iPad shipments.

The analyst did not specify if the upcoming device will have the traditional LCD screen or one based on AMOLED display technology like iPhone 8. For what it's worth, Kuo said in August 2016 that a “revolutionary” iPad model with flexible AMOLED panels and other “radical changes” in form factor design shouldn't be expected before 2018.

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For the sake of completeness, we should mentioned that KGI speculated last October that the device would sport the same 2,7320-by-2,048 pixel resolution as the 12.9-inch iPad Pro, with the same pixel density as the iPad mini 4 at 326 pixels per inch.

At that resolution, the width of the 10.5-inch iPad model would be the same height as the current iPad mini models, meaning users could be able to run two full-sized windows side-by-side in iOS’s Split View multitasking mode.

Raymond Soneira, a display expert and president of DisplayMate Technologies, thinks that if the new 10.5-inch iPad shrinks the bezel and keeps the outside dimensions the same, then the display aspect ratio will increase from the current 1.33 to as high as 1.50.

“The screen area would then increase by up to 31 percent. However, with no bezel at all the screen diagonal would then be 11.2 inches for the same outside dimensions as the current 9.7-inch iPad model with the rounded corners,” he added.

WWDC kicks off with a keynote address at 10:00am Pacific Time on Monday, June 5.

Image: 9.7-inch iPad Pro with a 10.5-inch piece of paper overlaid via Dan Provost.

KGI reiterates iPhone 8 production ramp up will be delayed to as late as October-November

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has reiterated his previous stance that iPhone 8 production ramp-up will be delayed to as late as October-November versus the normal August-September timeframe due to “major hardware upgrades.”

In a note to clients Tuesday, obtained by MacRumors, the analyst cautioned that any delay is likely to cause severe supply constraints and impact overall shipments during the second half of 2017.

“We are seeing more evidence that the worst-case scenario forecasted in our April 19 report could materialize,” reads the note titled “Rising probability of worst-case scenario for iPhone shipments”.

Kuo goes on to predict that “severe supply shortages” could persist for “a while” following the introduction of new iPhones in September.

“Severe supply shortages may persist for a while after the new models are launched, capping total shipments of new iPhones in the second half of 2017,” reads the note. The revered Apple analyst has now revised his iPhone shipment estimates from 100 to 110 million units down to 80 to 90 million iPhone units for the second half of 2017.

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Kuo says it remains to be seen whether demand will fully shift to iPhone 8.

That's because, in Kuo's view, it's still unclear if a rumored 3D sensor will be useful. He also cited other factors such as the potential for Touch ID to be eliminated completely and intensifying smartphone competition.

Here's an excerpt from the note:

While we are positive on potential replacement demand triggered by OLED iPhone, it's too early to determine if demand will shift fully in that direction.

We recommend investors keep tabs on the following issues:

(1) whether the 3D sensor of OLED iPhone provides an innovative user experience;

(2) whether OLED iPhone cancels Touch ID (fingerprint recognition);

and (3) whether Apple's competitors launch more innovative products which could compete with OLED iPhone in 4Q17-2Q18.

If iPhone 8 is indeed facing a delayed launch as Kuo has suggested, Apple could still preview the handset alongside the iterative iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus updates in September.

The company could then choose to launch the OLED iPhone in small quantities before its suppliers are able to fully ramp up production.

Image: CNC-machined iPhone 8 chassis based on leaks via Benjamin Geskin